Severe Tropical Storm Wipha (09W/Crising) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8: 1500 UTC 19 July 2025

Wipha continues to strengthen as it approaches Hong Kong

Author

Will Weaver
July 19, 2025

…Wipha continues to strengthen as it approaches Hong Kong…

GPM GMI 89 GHz microwave image

Current storm information:

  • Position: 21.3°N 117.6°E

  • Movement: WNW at 12 knots (20 km/h)

  • Intensity: 55 knots (100 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 976 hPa

Trend:

  • Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Wipha could become a typhoon on Sunday.

Watches and warnings:

  • No. 3 Storm Signal: Hong Kong, Macau. This will be replaced with the No. 8 storm signal during the next few hours, and there is a chance that even higher storm signals will be needed later on Sunday.

  • All wind signals for the Philippines have been dropped.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Wipha is expected to produce strong tropical storm or typhoon conditions - potentially destructive winds, heavy surf, and heavy rain - across much of southern China during the next few days, including in Hong Kong and Macau and on Hainan Island. Winds will be stronger at higher elevations, such as upper floors of high-rise buildings, and heavy rainfall could result in flash flooding. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

  • Wipha is likely to produce tropical storm conditions in northern Vietnam, including in the Hanoi metropolitan area, beginning on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall associated with Wipha and its remnants will spread over northern Laos and northern Thailand by Wednesday.

Discussion:

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

GPM GMI 89 GHz microwave satellite image showing a band of intense convection wrapping part way into the center

Wipha is showing signs that it may be approaching typhoon strength. Both conventional and microwave satellite imagery, as well as radar data from China and Taiwan, indicates that a large eye feature appears to be in the process of closing off, although the eyewall convection does not wrap all the way around the center. The center itself has consolidated quite a bit in recent hours, as indicated on scatterometer data that shows some contracting of the wind field. The central dense overcast has continued to solidify, although there is some impingement of the equatorward outflow channel by moderate easterly shear (which is indicated by the convection seeming to abruptly end southeast of the center. The current intensity of 55 kts is based on consensus T3.5 Dvorak fixes, and CIMSS ADT and D-PRINT estimates of 53 and 51 kts respectively.

Composite radar image (CyclonicWx)

The forecast is somewhat challenging because of some developing systems further to the east, as well as spread in the model guidance. Wipha is forecast to continue on a general west-northwest to westward track during the next couple days, and on this track it is expected to skirt the southern coast of China, including Hong Kong and Macau, before crossing the Leizhou Peninsula on Monday. Wipha’s intensity will depend on how much land interaction occurs. If Wipha tracks further south than forecast, it could strengthen much more than currently indicated, and both CIMSS AI-RI and RAMMB RIPA rapid intensification guidance show a decent chance of rapid intensification during the next 24 hours. Given these factors, the intensities listed below are higher than JMA and JTWC are forecasting. Once Wipha moves over the Leizhou Peninsula, increasing shear and land interaction will likely cause steady weakening up until it makes landfall in Vietnam on Tuesday, after which Wipha should rapidly degenerate into a broad area of low pressure by Wednesday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 21.3°N 117.6°E – 55 kts 

  • 12 hrs: 21.7°N 114.5°E – 65 kts 

  • 24 hrs: 21.5°N 111.9°E – 75 kts 

  • 48 hrs: 20.8°N 108.6°E – 60 kts

  • 72 hrs: 20.2°N 105.7°E – 50 kts

  • 96 hrs: 20.2°N 102.6°E – 35 kts inland

  • 120 hrs: Dissipated

JMA forecast map (click to enlarge)