Severe Tropical Storm Podul (16W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6: 1500 UTC 9 August 2025

…Podul continues to move westward with little change in strength…

Current storm information:

• Position: 21.6°N 140.4°E

• Movement: W at 10 knots (20 km/h)

• Intensity: 50 knots (95 km/h)

• Central pressure: 992 hPa

Trend:

• Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

Still not much change with Podul since the previous advisory. The tropical storm continues to experience the effects of persistent moderate northeasterly shear (about 20 kts per CIMSS), and the convection remains displaced to the south and southwest of the center. The circulation center remains intermittently exposed along the northeastern edge of this overcast. Despite Podul not being vertically aligned, the mid-level circulation remains quite robust, with microwave satellite imagery continuing to indicate the presence of a partial eye feature with fairly well defined banding wrapping into it. The intensity remains a potentially conservative 50 kts, hedged between a wide assortment of Dvorak fixes ranging from T3.0 to T4.0 and CIMSS ADT, D-PRINT, and SATCON estimates ranging from 49 to 57 kts.

The forecast is mostly unchanged from the previous one. Podul remains embedded in strong easterly flow beneath a series of subtropical ridges to the north, and it is expected to continue on a due west trajectory through Monday. By that point, Podul should reach a weakening portion of the ridge and turn west-northwestward, passing near the Yaeyama Islands Tuesday into Wednesday before crossing into the East China Sea. 

Some strengthening appears to be possible in the short term as, despite the shear, SSTs are extremely warm and the environment is quite moist, and this could offset the effects of the shear. Podul is expected to approach or reach typhoon intensity by Sunday evening. By Monday, however, the shear is expected to increase dramatically, and rapid weakening is forecast to begin on Tuesday and continue to the end of the forecast period. Although there is a forecast point inland over eastern China at 120 hours, it is very possible Podul could dissipate before moving over land. It should be noted however that some more recent runs of the GFS suggest that Podul could track a bit further south than currently indicated - this is a trend that will need to be monitored, as southward shifts in the forecast could result in a direct threat to Taiwan and a potentially stronger system. Once again, confidence in the current forecast is fairly low.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 21.6°N 140.4°E – 50 kts

• 12 hrs: 21.8°N 138.7°E – 55 kts 

• 24 hrs: 21.9°N 136.3°E – 65 kts 

• 48 hrs: 22.0°N 131.3°E – 65 kts 

• 72 hrs: 23.3°N 126.8°E – 55 kts

• 96 hrs: 25.1°N 123.9°E – 40 kts

• 120 hrs: 28.1°N 119.8°E – 25 kts inland