Severe Tropical Storm Podul (16W/Gorio) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10: 1200 UTC 11 August 2025

Podul starting to get better organized and could become a typhoon on Tuesday.

Author

Will Weaver
August 11, 2025

…Podul starting to get better organized… …Could become a typhoon on Tuesday…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 21.1°N 131.0°E

  • Movement: W at 12 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 55 knots (100 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 990 hPa

Trend:

  • Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Podul could become a typhoon on Tuesday.

Watches and warnings:

  • There are no land-based watches or warnings in effect. However, typhoon warnings may be needed for portions of Taiwan tomorrow.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Interests in Taiwan should monitor the progress of Podul. Podul could cause very heavy rain over much of Taiwan beginning Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Thursday morning. In addition, strong tropical storm or typhoon conditions are likely along the eastern coast of the island. The heavy rainfall will spread over eastern China on Thursday afternoon. This rainfall is likely to cause widespread flooding and landslides. For additional information, including possible warnings, refer to products from your local weather office.

Discussion:

F-16 SSMIS 91GHz microwave satellite image. Note the eye feature (green ring) displaced just to the southeast of the circulation center.

Podul is starting to show signs of getting better organized. Although strong shear continues to impact the system, the shear direction is gradually shifting from northeast to east. Because Podul is moving westward, this is lessening the shear’s effect, and convection has quickly rebuilt over the circulation center. The center remains tucked just under the northern edge of the convection. The convection itself has regained some structure, with bands beginning to wrap into the circulation center. Microwave satellite imagery also indicates that a partial eyewall has formed around a very small eye feature, although this eye is not yet vertically aligned with the surface center. The intensity is increased to 55 kts, based on consensus Dvorak fixes of T3.5 and a SATCON estimate of 57 kts. RCM-3 SAR continues to indicate a band of stronger winds east of the center, though these may be inflated due to heavy rain and ice contamination.

Now that Podul is getting better organized, it seems likely to strengthen some more, at least during the next day or so while it moves in phase with the shear. If the mid-level and low-level centers can become vertically aligned, this strengthening could even be rapid, though none of the rapid intensification guidance suggests a high likelihood of rapid intensification. Still, most of the available guidance indicates that Podul will reach typhoon intensity during the next 24 hours, likely peaking in intensity late Tuesday evening as it turns west-northwestward under a weaker portion of the subtropical ridge. Once this turn happens, Podul will move out of phase with the shear, causing a gradual weakening trend that should last up until landfall in Taiwan on Wednesday afternoon. After landfall, Podul’s small circulation should quickly become disrupted by the mountainous terrain and rapidly weaken the system, and Podul will likely dissipate just after making landfall in eastern China on Thursday. Although confidence in the intensity forecast is higher than before, it still remains low due to the possibility of short-term rapid intensification.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 00 hrs: 21.1°N 131.0°E – 55 kts

  • 12 hrs: 21.4°N 128.2°E – 65 kts 

  • 24 hrs: 22.2°N 125.6°E – 75 kts 

  • 48 hrs: 24.4°N 119.8°E – 45 kts in the Taiwan Strait

  • 72 hrs: 26.5°N 114.7°E – 25 kts inland

  • 96 hrs: Dissipated

JTWC forecast map