Severe Tropical Storm Neoguri (#25W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4: 1200 UTC 19 September 2025

…Neoguri rapidly intensifying well away from any land areas…

Current storm information:

• Position: 24.7°N 159.2°E

• Movement: WNW at 10 knots (20 km/h)

• Intensity: 60 knots (110 km/h) 

• Central pressure: 990 hPa

Trend:

• Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Neoguri will likely become a typhoon later tonight.

Discussion:

Neoguri appears to have embarked upon a rapid intensification phase. Thanks to excellent dual-channel venting from an upper-level trough to the northwest and a mid-level anticyclone to the southwest, Neoguri has developed a very symmetric central dense overcast feature with very cold (-70°C) cloud tops especially in the eastern semicircle. Microwave satellite imagery indicates the presence of a large mid-level eye feature, which is starting to clear out and become evident on more conventional satellite imagery. Because Neoguri is such a compact system, scatterometers continue to have issues resolving its entire wind field, but Dvorak fixes range from T4.0 to T4.5 from the various agencies with slightly lower CIMSS ADT and D-PRINT estimates. Taking a blend of these data yields a potentially conservative intensity estimate of 60 kts, just shy of typhoon intensity.

Neoguri is expected to remain in a very favorable environment as it moves generally west-northwestward during the next couple of days, and additional rapid intensification appears likely during that time. Neoguri is expected to become a typhoon during the next few hours, and it will likely peak in intensity at high-end Category 3 strength by Monday. At around the same time, the upper-level trough is expected to cause Neoguri to turn northward, then gradually curve northeastward. An associated increase in shear should result in some weakening through the end of the forecast period. At this point, it is not clear whether the trough will cause a full-on recurvature, as model guidance is split on whether Neoguri gets picked up by the trough or the trough leaves it behind entirely. Either way, the forecast confidence drops significantly by the end of the forecast, and Neoguri is likely to slow down and become nearly stationary by the middle of next week.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 24.7°N 159.2°E – 60 kts

• 12 hrs: 25.4°N 157.0°E – 70 kts

• 24 hrs: 25.9°N 155.1°E – 80 kts

• 48 hrs: 28.0°N 151.2°E – 100 kts

• 72 hrs: 29.8°N 150.6°E – 110 kts

• 96 hrs: 30.2°N 151.3°E – 100 kts

• 120 hrs: 30.3°N 152.1°E – 85 kts