Severe Tropical Storm #Neoguri (25W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #18: 1200 UTC 26 September 2025

…Neoguri remains stationary but should begin moving northeastward late tonight…

Current storm information:

• Position: 32.1°N 153.8°E

• Movement: Stationary

• Intensity: 55 knots (100 km/h)

• Central pressure: 984 hPa

Trend:

• Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

Neoguri remains stalled over the northern subtropical Pacific as a result of a collapse of steering currents. However, the tropical storm appears to be in the process of getting better organized. Convection has redeveloped in all quadrants and is already wrapping fairly tightly into the circulation center. Microwave satellite imagery indicates that a partial eye feature has redeveloped, as well. The system remains surrounded by cool, dry air, and a cold front is beginning to impinge upon the system from the northwest, so the convective redevelopment may be short-lived. The current intensity is lowered a bit to 55 kts, hedged between Dvorak fixes ranging from T3.0 to T3.5 and a RCM-2 SAR pass that found winds of 60-65 kts in the northeastern quadrant.

Neoguri should begin to accelerate northeastward later tonight as the cold front approaches. Interaction with this front, in addition to increasing shear and much colder SSTs, should result in Neoguri rapidly becoming a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday evening. Some strengthening is likely during this process due to baroclinic processes, and Neoguri will likely retain hurricane-force winds for another day or two before it gradually weakens over the northeastern Pacific. The forecast track has been nudged a bit to the south of the previous one as it no longer appears that post-tropical Neoguri will interact with another low over the Bering Sea. As a result, there no longer appears to be any concern that post-tropical Neoguri will bring any major impacts to the Aleutian Islands.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 000 hrs: 32.1°N 153.8°E – 55 kts

• 012 hrs: 32.3°N 154.6°E – 60 kts

• 024 hrs: 32.8°N 159.0°E – 65 kts

• 048 hrs: 38.5°N 167.6°E – 65 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 072 hrs: 44.7°N 179.8°W – 65 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 096 hrs: 45.3°N 165.1°W – 45 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 120 hrs: 45.0°N 153.0°W – 35 kts Post-tropical/extratropical