Severe Tropical Storm Matmo (#27W/Paolo) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6: 1200 UTC 3 October 2025

Matmo emerges over water off the western coast of Luzon.

Author

Will Weaver
October 03, 2025

…Matmo emerges over water off the western coast of Luzon…

Himawari-9 infrared satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 17.6°N 119.4°E

  • Movement: WNW at 13 knots (25 km/h)

  • Intensity: 60 knots (110 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 992 hPa

Trend:

  • Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Matmo will likely become a typhoon again on Saturday.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • No. 1 Standby Signal (HKO/SMG): Hong Kong, Macau

  • TCWS #3 (Philippines): Western coasts of Ilocos Sur and La Union

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): Southern Ilocos Norte, the rest of Ilocos Sur, Abra, western Kalinga, western Mountain Province, western Ifugao, the rest of La Union, Benguet, western Nueva Vizcaya, northern and central Pangasinan

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): Batan and Sabtang Islands, Babuyan Islands, northern Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Cagayan, eastern Kalinga, eastern Mountain Province, central and eastern Ifugao, Isabela, central and eastern Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, southeastern Pangasinan, Zambales, Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, northern Quezon, Polillo Islands

Hazards affecting land:

  • Conditions in northern Luzon should gradually improve throughout the night and into Saturday, but heavy rainfall and damaging winds are still possible along the western coastline through Saturday morning. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

  • Typhoon conditions are possible on Hainan Island and the Leizhou Peninsula in southern China on Sunday. Heavy rainfall and strong winds are also possible in far northeastern Vietnam on Monday.

Discussion:

Matmo has completed its passage across northern Luzon, and it looks about as disorganized as one would expect from a tropical cyclone that has passed over Luzon and its central mountain range. Matmo has a very disrupted look to it, although its circulation remains fairly well defined. Most of the convection is located south and east of the center, and the eye feature that had developed prior to landfall is no longer evident. The convection has a fragmented appearance, but discrete bands are still present and trying to wrap back into the center, and impressive radial outflow is helping sustain them. Dvorak fixes range from T3.5 to T4.0, and the intensity is lowered to 60 kts. 

Matmo’s future depends on how quickly it can reorganize during the next day or so. Rapid intensification aids continue to suggest a high likelihood of short-term rapid intensification, and much of the model guidance also suggests rapid intensification, with the HAFS-A model and Google DeepMind ensemble being the most aggressive and bringing Matmo up to Category 3 strength before reaching Hainan. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF models suggest somewhat less intensification but still make Matmo a significant typhoon. Considering that the environment is expected to be quite favorable with very warm waters and low shear, it seems reasonable to split the difference. Matmo is forecast to intensify fairly quickly through Sunday, when it will likely pass over northern Hainan or the Leizhou Peninsula. Although Matmo should not spend much time over land, it should weaken steadily even as it crosses over the Gulf of Tonkin, and a final landfall as a tropical storm is expected near the China-Vietnam border on Monday. Matmo will likely weaken to a tropical depression by Monday night and dissipate on Tuesday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 17.6°N 119.4°E – 60 kts 

  • 012 hrs: 18.0°N 116.5°E – 70 kts 

  • 024 hrs: 18.7°N 113.8°E – 90 kts 

  • 048 hrs: 20.7°N 109.4°E – 60 kts

  • 072 hrs: 22.5°N 105.2°E – 30 kts inland

  • 096 hrs: Dissipated

JMA forecast map