Severe Tropical Storm Krosa (12W) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20: 0000 UTC 2 August 2025

…Krosa moving northeastward away from Japan…

Current storm information:

• Position: 36.3°N 142.7°E

• Movement: NE at 12 knots (20 km/h)

• Intensity: 55 knots (110 km/h)

• Central pressure: 972 hPa

Trend:

• Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Discussion:

Krosa has made its turn toward the northeast and is now quickly moving away from Japan. The tropical storm is beginning to exhibit signs of being sheared as it gets swept up into the mid-latitude westerlies, with the circulation center gradually becoming exposed as the convection becomes displaced to the north and east of the center. The convection is also beginning to expand in coverage as Krosa begins to interact with the tail end of a stationary front draped over the northern Pacific. Meanwhile, there are signs of frontogenesis south of the system with an increasingly front-like trough extending south to Tropical Depression 93W. For now, Krosa is still a tropical cyclone, and the intensity is lowered to 55 kts based on consensus T3.5 Dvorak fixes.

Now that Krosa is rounding the subtropical ridge, it should accelerate east-northeastward into the westerlies. Krosa should remain over SSTs of 26°C or warmer for another day or so, so little change in strength appears likely until then. By Sunday evening, Krosa should move over much colder waters and become more entangled within the frontal boundary, which should cause it to rapidly lose the rest of its tropical characteristics and become post-tropical by Tuesday before exiting the basin.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

• 00 hrs: 36.3°N 142.7°E – 55 kts

• 12 hrs: 37.8°N 145.4°E – 55 kts

• 24 hrs: 39.4°N 150.4°E – 50 kts

• 48 hrs: 42.1°N 161.7°E – 45 kts

• 72 hrs: 43.2°N 172.0°E – 35 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 96 hrs: 44.5°N 174.8°W – 30 kts Post-tropical/extratropical

• 120 hrs: 48.9°N 161.4°W – 30 kts Post-tropical/extratropical