Severe Tropical Storm Bualoi (26W/Opong) – Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6: 0000 UTC 26 September 2025

Bualoi over the Sibuyan Sea and accelerating. Very heavy rainfall continues to spread westward across the Visayas and southern Luzon.

Author

Will Weaver
September 25, 2025

…Bualoi over the Sibuyan Sea and accelerating… …Very heavy rainfall continues to spread westward across the Visayas and southern Luzon…

Himawari-9 visible satellite image (Weathernerds)

Current storm information:

  • Position: 12.2°N 122.9°E

  • Movement: W at 20 knots (35 km/h)

  • Intensity: 60 knots (110 km/h)

  • Central pressure: 990 hPa

Trend:

  • Some weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

PAGASA wind signal map (click to enlarge)

  • TCWS #3 (Philippines): Batangas, southern Laguna southern and eastern Quezon, Lubang Island, Marinduque, western and central Camarines Sur, Albay, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Bunas Island, Sorsogon, Ticao Island, Masbate, northern Aklan, northern Capiz

  • TCWS #2 (Philippines): Southern Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, northern Quezon, Polillo Island, Bataan, Metro Manila, Cavite, northern Laguna, Camarines Norte, northeastern Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Calamian Islands, northern Antique, central and southern Capiz, northeastern Iloilo, northern Negros Occidental, northern Cebu, Biliran, Northern Samar, northern and central Samar, northern Eastern Samar, northern Leyte

  • TCWS #1 (Philippines): A large swath of the Philippines, including Metro Manila, is under TCWS #1. The area ranges from Ifugao southward to Surigao del Norte. It’s too long to list, refer to the attached graphic for details.

Hazards affecting land:

  • Bualoi will likely continue producing very heavy rainfall and damaging winds along and mainly to the south of its forecast track, including in the Visayas, northern Palawan, and northern Mindanao. Heavy rainfall is also possible in portions of southern and central Luzon, including in Metro Manila. Rainfall totals of up to 250 mm are possible through Saturday. This rainfall could cause flooding of low-lying areas. For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office.

  • Interests in Hainan Island and northern Vietnam should monitor the progress of Bualoi.

Discussion:

Bualoi has crossed over Samar Island and is now situated in the Sibuyan Sea. The system continues to exhibit the effects of strong northeasterly shear, as the convection continues to exhibit a CCC pattern with the coldest cloud tops located west of the circulation center. Cloud tops near and to the east of the center have warmed and are exhibiting feathering as a result of the shear. Although a warm spot has appeared within the CCC, this warm spot does not appear to be an eye as there is little in the way of banding wrapping into it. CIMSS ADT, AiDT, and D-PRINT estimates range from 55 to 71 kts; the intensity is set to 60 kts.

The shear is forecast to persist for another day or so as Bualoi gradually turns west-northwestward and emerges into the South China Sea. Some weakening is likely before then due to both shear and land interaction. As Bualoi gains some latitude, the shear should relax, and this should enable some strengthening as Bualoi moves quickly across the South China Sea and into the Gulf of Tonkin. Bualoi is likely to become a typhoon by Saturday evening, and it could peak at Category 2 status on Sunday as it turns northwestward. The intensity should level off on Sunday afternoon as Bualoi makes a close approach to Hainan Island, but it should still be a typhoon when it makes landfall in northern Vietnam on Monday. Bualoi should race inland and quickly decay into a trough of low pressure over Laos on Tuesday.

Forecast positions and maximum winds

  • 000 hrs: 12.2°N 122.9°E – 60 kts

  • 012 hrs: 13.5°N 120.1°E – 50 kts

  • 024 hrs: 14.7°N 116.5°E – 65 kts

  • 048 hrs: 16.2°N 110.6°E – 85 kts

  • 072 hrs: 18.9°N 106.3°E – 85 kts

  • 096 hrs: 20.2°N 102.9°E – 30 kts inland

  • 120 hrs: Dissipated

JMA forecast map