Mid-Atlantic Winter Storm 1/24 to 1/26 - First Guess Maps

A major winter storm is expected to move through the area between Saturday and Monday. Heavy snow and ice accumulation could cause significant disruptions to travel and infrastructure that could last most of next week.

Author

Will Weaver
January 22, 2026

It's time to start throwing out numbers, and here's my first guess. Unfortunately, this is not a very high confidence forecast because there is still a wide range of model solutions for this weekend's storm. What is certain is that heavily impactful winter weather will move into the area on Saturday evening and persist through Monday morning, and the entirety of the state of Virginia is under a winter storm watch.

First guess snowfall map for this weekend’s storm. The bullseye is in the mountains of western Virginia, where 18 to 24 inches of snow is possible. Most of northern and western Virginia could see 8 to 18 inches of snow, with a band of 5 to 8 inches including Blacksburg, Lynchburg, Farmville, and Richmond. A band of 2 to 5 inches of snow is located to the south, generally along the US Route 58 corridor.

Most of Virginia will see snow change over to a wintry mix by Sunday afternoon, with portions of central and southeastern Virginia changing over to freezing rain and sleet by sunset on Sunday. This freezing rain and sleet could be heavy at times, and the result could be significant ice accretion. It only takes about a tenth of an inch of ice to cause major damage to trees and power lines, and a pretty sizable portion of the region could see ice accretion up to half an inch. This will result in widespread power outages and extremely dangerous travel conditions, and it could be the worst ice storm in recent memory for some portions of the region.

First guess ice accretion map for this weekend’s storm. A sizable area of south central Virginia, including Petersburg and points to the southwest, could see up to half an inch of ice accretion, with some spots seeing up to 3/4". The Richmond area could see up to 1/4" of ice accretion while much of the state could see 1/10" to about 1/8". It does not take much ice to cause significant problems - a light glaze is enough to make road travel dangerous, while it only takes about 1/10" to bring down tree branches and power lines. Much of Virginia is therefore under the gun for severely disruptive ice accretion.

Precipitation could change back to snow in most of the area overnight Sunday into Monday before the event ends, and some additional light snowfall accumulations are possible - the map takes that into account.

Whatever falls will stick around for a while as bitterly cold air will move in behind the storm, and temperatures are not currently forecast to get above freezing until Thursday at the earliest. Now is the time to make preparations, as this storm will likely be highly disruptive, and those disruptions could last for most of the week.

Adjustments will be made to my forecast as the event gets closer and more model data comes into play - most of the forecasts out right now involve the global models like the GFS and the ECMWF (Euro), while the short-range mesoscale models such as the NAM only go out to anywhere from 60 to 84 hours.

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