Hurricane Erin (05L) - Tropical Cyclone Update #4 - 9 AM EDT 8/20/25

…Enormous Erin slowly moving parallel to the U.S. East Coast… …Potentially catastrophic coastal flooding and life-threatening heavy surf and rip currents expected to intensify during the day today…

Current storm information:

• Position: 29.6°N 73.7°W (45 mi WSW of Richmond, VA)

• Movement: NNW at 10 knots (13 mph)

• Intensity: 85 knots (100 mph)

• Central pressure: 948 mb

Trend:

• Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.

Watches and warnings:

• Tropical storm warning: Beaufort Inlet, NC to the NC/VA border, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

• Storm surge warning: Cape Lookout to Duck, NC

• Tropical storm watch: NC/VA border to Chincoteague, VA; Bermuda

• Some areas under the tropical storm watch may need to be put under a tropical storm warning later today.

Hazards affecting land:

• Although Erin is forecast to remain well off the U.S. East Coast, it is a very large tropical cyclone with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to 265 miles from the center. These winds are expected to reach the coast, and portions of the Outer Banks and Virginia’s Atlantic coastline could see tropical storm conditions - heavy rain and sustained winds over 40 mph with higher gusts - beginning later today and continuing into Thursday and Friday. These winds could cause localized damage to structures. In addition, rainfall of up to 4” is possible, particularly south of the NC/VA border.

• The major issue with Erin will be coastal flooding. Erin is generating phenomenal seas with waves as high as 50 ft close to the center. While those 50 ft waves won’t remain 50 ft as they reach the coast, potentially catastrophic coastal flooding is likely in the Outer Banks and along the Virginia Beach Oceanfront today and tomorrow. Highways running near the coast, particularly Route 12 in the Outer Banks, will likely be washed away and become impassable. There are mandatory evacuations in effect for Hatteras Island - if you are in that area, you should take them seriously and get out as soon as possible, as anyone in that region will likely be unable to leave after this evening. Closer to Central Virginia, severe coastal flooding is also possible along the James and York Rivers, particularly from Williamsburg to the Chesapeake Bay.

• In addition to the heavy surf, Erin will generate significant storm surge flooding, with storm surge of 2 to 4 ft above normal tide levels expected within the storm surge warning area. Storm surge of 1 to 3 ft is possible along the Virginia Beach and Norfolk Atlantic coasts, the Eastern Shore, and the southern Chesapeake Bay coastline. Storm surge of 1 to 2 ft is possible within the tidal portions of the James, York, Rappahannock, and Potomac Rivers. Flooding will be worst near times of high tide.

Focus on Central Virginia:

• Erin is still not expected to have significant effects in inland areas, such as the Richmond and Petersburg areas, and in fact conditions there will likely improve as a slow-moving cold front moves through the region. The weather will likely turn quite pleasant with cooler temperatures (low 80s) and lower humidity on Thursday and Friday. Despite that, gusty winds are still likely along and east of I-95, with Richmond likely to see periods of 15 to 25 mph winds with gusts of 30 to 35 mph at times on Thursday.

• The beaches, meanwhile, will be a much different and more dangerous place. Despite the center of Erin remaining well offshore, Erin’s huge wind field will bring tropical storm force winds to the Outer Banks and the Virginia Atlantic coastline between this afternoon and Friday morning. Sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph with higher gusts are possible, especially south of the NC/VA border. These winds could cause localized damage to structures and knock down trees and power lines. These winds will spread to the Virginia Atlantic coastline tomorrow.

• If you are on Hatteras Island, get out now! Potentially catastrophic coastal flooding is expected to occur on the Outer Banks and parts of the Virginia Beach oceanfront. Coastal highways such as Route 12 will very likely be washed out and become impassable, especially portions that are unprotected by dunes. It is very likely that anyone still on Hatteras Island will be trapped there after tomorrow, and this situation could last for some time.

• Do not venture onto the water, and do not swim at the beaches! Extremely dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents are expected today. The rip current risk will persist through the weekend, making swimming dangerous.

The next update will be posted tomorrow (August 21). For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office or the National Hurricane Center at http://www.hurricanes.gov.

One last thing…

• Do you like what you see? Please consider sending a tip via Ko-fi! I wear a lot of hats between a day job, being a photographer, and being a worldwide weather enthusiast, and while I will never put any of my content behind a paywall (paywalls kind of defeat the purpose of this blog/newsletter/thingy), your tips definitely help! You can send a tip via the following link: https://ko-fi.com/willweaverrva