Hurricane Erin (05L) - Tropical Cyclone Update #3 - 10 AM EDT 8/19/25

…Erin still forecast to pass well off the East Coast but could bring tropical storm conditions to the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach… …Dangerous, life-threatening surf, coastal flooding, and rip currents are likely…

Current storm information:

• Position: 25.2°N 72.2°W

• Movement: NW at 5 knots (7 mph)

• Intensity: 95 knots (110 mph)

• Central pressure: 958 mb

Trend:

• Fluctuations in strength are possible during the next few days.

Watches and warnings:

• Tropical storm warning: Turks & Caicos Islands, Southeast Bahamas

• Tropical storm watch: Central Bahamas, Beaufort Inlet to Duck, NC including Pamlico Sound

• Storm surge watch: Cape Lookout to Duck, NC

• Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be needed for the northernmost Outer Banks and parts of the Virginia Beach oceanfront and Eastern Shore later today or tomorrow.

Hazards affecting land:

• Erin is not forecast to have direct impacts on much of the area; however, areas along the Atlantic coast - namely, the Outer Banks, the Atlantic-facing coasts of Norfolk and Virginia Beach, and portions of the Eastern Shore - could see tropical storm conditions between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday evening. Heavy rainfall of up to 4 inches and winds of 40 to 50 mph are possible in these areas.

• In addition, Erin will generate phenomenal seas, which could cause extreme and life-threatening coastal flooding, beach erosion, heavy surf, and rip currents. These conditions could persist through the weekend - DO NOT GO OUT ON THE WATER.

Focus on Central Virginia:

• As stated earlier, Erin is not expected to have any direct impacts on much of the region outside of potentially gusty winds. Inland areas, including the Richmond, Petersburg, and Williamsburg areas, will likely see sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with occasional gusts to 30 mph. Since Erin will be passing well offshore, conditions in the inland areas will be rather pleasant, with partly to mostly sunny skies and low humidity on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday as Erin’s large circulation combined with a cold front will cause cooler and less humid air to filter into the region.

• The beaches are a VERY different story. Conditions along the coast will deteriorate from south to north beginning tomorrow and continuing through Thursday. The Outer Banks from Duck southward could see heavy rain and damaging winds - rainfall of up to 4” is possible, and sustained winds of 40 to 50 mph with higher gusts are likely, especially from Nags Head and southward. The rain and wind will spread northward to the Virginia Atlantic coast and Eastern Shore on Thursday.

• There are mandatory evacuation orders in effect on Hatteras Island - if you’re down there, heed them. While rain and wind are a big deal, the real story will be coastal flooding, beach erosion, and heavy surf/rip currents. A good deal of Route 12 in the Outer Banks is currently unprotected by dunes, and it is very, very likely that portions of Route 12 between Whalebone Junction and Buxton will be washed away by the extremely heavy surf. Anyone still on the island could be trapped there for quite some time.

The next update will be posted tomorrow (August 20). For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office or the National Hurricane Center at http://www.hurricanes.gov.

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