Hurricane Erin (05L) - Tropical Cyclone Update #2 - 2 PM EDT 8/17/25

Category 3 Hurricane Erin passing well north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Still expected to remain well offshore but the wind field could expand enough to bring tropical storm conditions to the Outer Banks by midweek.

Author

Will Weaver
August 17, 2025

…Category 3 Hurricane Erin passing well to the north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic… …Expected to remain well offshore but could bring tropical storm conditions to the Outer Banks by midweek…

Current storm information:

  • Position: 21.3°N 68.0W

  • Movement: WNW at 11 knots (13 mph)

  • Intensity: 110 knots (125 mph) [Cat 3]

  • Central pressure: 946 mb

GOES-19 visible satellite loop of Erin, passing well north of Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola (Weathernerds)

Trend:

  • Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours, although Erin could reintensify and reattain Category 4 status tomorrow.

Watches and warnings:

  • Tropical storm warning: Turks & Caicos Islands, Southeast Bahamas

Hazards affecting land:

  • Erin is expected to continue producing heavy rainfall over portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic today, with tropical storm conditions likely to spread over the Turks and Caicos Islands later tonight and over the southeastern Bahamas on Monday.

  • Although Erin is expected to remain well offshore, the hurricane is expected to increase significantly in size during the next few days. This will result in a wide area of dangerous, life-threatening heavy surf and rip currents along the U.S. East Coast and in the Bahamas and Bermuda throughout much of the week. In addition, Erin’s expanding wind field could result in tropical storm conditions along the Outer Banks and the southernmost Virginia beaches on Wednesday and Thursday. A tropical storm watch may be needed for these areas on Monday or Tuesday.

Focus on Central Virginia:

NHC forecast map. Erin is expected to split between Bermuda and the Outer Banks, but the hurricane is forecast to become quite huge, and it could bring tropical storm conditions to the Outer Banks and Bermuda by midweek.

  • Erin is in the process of undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle - a process that occurs in stronger tropical cyclones where an outer eyewall forms around the existing one, which results in the existing one breaking down and the new eyewall becoming dominant. This process has resulted in Erin weakening fairly significantly, from 140 kts to 110 kts since yesterday. Because of physics - all that energy is still there and has to go somewhere - this has resulted in Erin increasing in size. This process is mostly complete, as microwave satellite imagery (which you may have heard about in the news) indicates that Erin now has a much larger eye, though it is mostly cloud-filled.

METOP-C 89GHz microwave satellite image, showing Erin’s internal structure, including a much larger eye. (RAMMB/CIRA)

  • Also because physics, Erin is expected to increase even more in size as it begins to gain latitude later today. The good news is that Erin should recurve well offshore of the U.S. East Coast due to the presence of a weak area of low pressure southeast of Cape Hatteras. This low is creating a gap in the ridge of high pressure to the north, which will give Erin an “escape route” to recurve out to sea. Despite this, Erin will get so huge that tropical storm force winds could still occur along the Outer Banks and along the Virginia Beach Oceanfront on Wednesday and Thursday. Here’s a couple of model screenshots demonstrating this:

12Z 8/17 GFS focused on the mid-Atlantic at hour 90 (2:00am EDT 8/21). Erin is well offshore, but the large area of winds approaching tropical storm force (blue) is very close to the Outer Banks and the southeastern Virginia beaches.

06Z 8/17 ECMWF focused on the mid-Atlantic at hour 105 (11am EDT 8/21). Tropical storm force winds (green) are over the Outer Banks, with winds approaching tropical storm force are over the southeastern Virginia beaches and the Eastern Shore. (Weathernerds)

  • Even in the ECMWF scenario of stronger winds being closer to the coast, these winds will not penetrate very far inland, and so there are no direct impacts expected for most of Central Virginia. However, conditions at the beaches could be quite dangerous even before these winds occur, as Erin is expected to generate phenomenal seas (some model projections suggest waves of over 50 ft), which will result in heavy surf, coastal flooding, and life-threatening rip currents. Venturing out to sea or even going for a swim is going to be a very bad idea.

  • Further inland, including the Richmond area, the main impact of Erin will be very pleasant weather as Erin’s large and robust circulation will combine with a cold front and cause cooler and less humid air to filter into the area, leading to temperatures in the low 80s and very low humidity between Wednesday and Saturday. I’ll go into more depth about that in my regular Focus on Central Virginia post tomorrow.

The next update will be posted tomorrow (August 18). For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office or the National Hurricane Center at http://www.hurricanes.gov.

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