Hurricane Erin (05L) - Tropical Cyclone Update #1 - 11 AM EDT 8/16/25

Erin passing to the north of the Leeward Islands as a powerful Category 4 hurricane, expected to become a Category 5 hurricane later today. Not a direct threat to the U.S. east coast, but extremely dangerous heavy surf and rip currents are likely.

Author

Will Weaver
August 16, 2025

…Erin passing to the north of the Leeward Islands as a powerful Category 4 hurricane… …Expected to become a Category 5 hurricane later today… …Not a direct threat to the U.S. East Coast but extremely dangerous surf and rip currents are likely…

Current storm information:

  • Position: 19.7°N 62.8°W

  • Movement: W at 15 knots (17 mph)

  • Intensity: 135 knots (155 mph) [Cat 4]

  • Central pressure: 923 mb

GOES-19 visible satellite loop of Erin passing to the north of the Leeward Islands (Weathernerds). Erin is a highly impressive hurricane sporting a well-defined pinhole eye feature.

Trend:

  • Additional strengthening is likely during the next 24 hours, and Erin is likely to become a Category 5 hurricane later today.

Watches and warnings:

  • Tropical storm watch: St. Martin/Sint Maarten, St. Barthelemy

Hazards affecting land:

  • Erin’s outer rainbands could produce tropical storm conditions - damaging winds and heavy rain - over portions of the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico during the next day or two.

  • Erin is expected to dramatically increase in size during the next several days. Although Erin is forecast to remain well off the U.S. East Coast, it is likely to produce extremely dangerous and life-threatening heavy surf and rip currents along much of the coast from northern Florida to the Delmarva Peninsula beginning early next week. Don’t go in the water.

Focus on Central Virginia:

NHC forecast map for Erin. Erin is forecast to remain well away from the U.S. East Coast, but it is forecast to increase in size and make for dangerous conditions at the beaches next week.

  • Erin is not forecast to have any direct impacts on the mid-Atlantic, and there is very strong agreement among the models. However, as Erin gains latitude, it is forecast to increase dramatically in size (possibly double or triple its current size). Because of this, Erin will generate a huge area of phenomenal seas - some model guidance suggests that Erin could generate waves as high as 50 ft. While this does not mean that huge walls of water will be rushing toward the U.S. East Coast or Bermuda, it does mean that conditions at the beaches will be extremely dangerous. Life-threatening heavy surf and rip currents are very likely beginning on Tuesday or Wednesday, and there could also be some coastal flooding, especially in the Outer Banks. If you venture out to the beaches next week, use extreme caution and avoid going in the water.

The next update will be posted tomorrow (August 17). For additional information, refer to products from your local weather office or the National Hurricane Center at http://www.hurricanes.gov.

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