Focus on Central Virginia - Week of 9/22/25

Weather Headlines for Central Virginia:

• A Dry Start — Today and tomorrow will be fairly quiet with sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 80s and low humidity. Unfortunately, the quiet weather won’t last…

• A Wet Finish — A cold front approaches the area from the northwest by midweek, bringing increasing rain chances to the region Wednesday through Saturday. This rain is actually very much needed as a good portion of the state, and some parts of Central Virginia, are experiencing moderate drought conditions, with southeastern Virginia being abnormally dry.

• Tropical Trouble? — While Hurricane Gabrielle is out in the central Atlantic and is not a threat to any land areas, another disturbance east of the Leeward Islands could develop into a tropical depression late this week when it’s near the Bahamas. Model guidance suggests this system might move up the coast over the weekend into early next week, and it could bring some major impacts to the beaches and even some inland areas.

In Depth:

• The start of the week looks pretty nice for much of the region. Early fog will give way to sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 80s across the area, with upper 70s at the beaches. Humidity will be fairly low as well. These temperatures are actually a bit above normal for this time of year (the average high just dipped into the upper 70s), so could we call this Third Summer? Whatever it is, it’s not going to last very long.

• On Wednesday, an approaching cold front is going to cause a spike in humidity and increase our rain chances. Highs will be in the mid-80s but it will be much more humid, and there will be a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. The rain could be heavy at times, and up to half an inch of rain is possible across much of the region.

• Late this week, the rain chances will continue with our biggest chance of heavy rain being on Thursday. The Weather Prediction Center has the area under a marginal risk of excessive rainfall. Some parts of the area could see 1 to 2 inches of rain on Thursday, with another 1 to 1.5 inches possible on Friday. As miserable as this sounds, we really need the rain - almost half of the state is listed as “abnormally dry” in the U.S. Drought Monitor while parts of the Piedmont are officially in moderate drought status. A lot of those areas will get some much needed relief late this week. The rain chances should subside over the weekend, and Sunday looks relatively quiet, but we’ll need to pay attention to the tropics…

• Here’s a summary of this week’s weather for the Richmond area:

• The tropics are starting to wake up. Category 3 Hurricane Gabrielle is churning way off in the Central Atlantic and is not a threat to land. Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two disturbances for possible development. The one we’re most concerned with is a tropical wave currently located east of the Leeward Islands that the NHC is giving a medium - 40% - chance of development during the next 7 days. Some of the models suggest that this system will move up the coast and could bring tropical storm conditions to the beaches early next week. It is also possible that inland areas, including the Richmond area, could see some impacts if this pans out. Of course, the system hasn’t formed yet, so it’s really too early to speculate on exactly who might get what, but it’s something to keep an eye on.

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