Focus on Central Virginia - Week of 8/11/25

Weather Headlines for Central Virginia:

• Back to Reality — After last week’s mostly pleasant weather, it’s back to the old grind as it will be warm and humid with daily shower and thunderstorm chances this week. We’re not talking extreme heat or anything, but heat index values could approach 100° Wednesday through Sunday. Any thunderstorms that form will probably not be severe but could produce heavy rain.

• Tropical Storm Erin — Invest 97L has developed into Tropical Storm Erin far out in the eastern Atlantic, west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although it’s days away, it already appears highly unlikely to be a major concern for the mid-Atlantic or Central Virginia except for rough surf and rip currents at the beaches next week.

In Depth:

• After some relatively pleasant weather the past week and a half or so, we’re back to more typical summer weather for central Virginia. There’s really not a whole lot to say about it, just warm and humid. Expect a mix of clouds and sun during the next few days. The cloud cover will help keep temperatures down somewhat, especially today - most of the area should see temperatures in the low to mid 80s, with upper 70s at the beaches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely pop up late this afternoon. While any thunderstorms that form shouldn’t be severe, they could produce locally heavy rainfall of up to an inch.

• Tuesday and Wednesday should be warmer than today as there will likely be less cloud cover for most of the day. Temperatures will rise to the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday and around 90 on Wednesday - cooler at the beaches. Once again, it will be humid, and the heat and humidity will likely result in more pop-up showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Heat index values could approach 100° on Wednesday. You can expect Thursday and Friday to be the same as Wednesday, except the humidity could be even higher and heat index values could be in the low to mid 100s both days. Don’t be surprised if the National Weather Service issues a heat advisory for Thursday.

• Here’s a summary of this week’s weather for the Richmond area:

• Meanwhile, Invest 97L has become Tropical Storm Erin (05L). It’s located west of the Cabo Verde Islands with winds of 40 kts (45 mph), and is moving westward at a brisk 17 kts (20 mph). Erin is forecast to move basically due west across the tropical Atlantic during the next 5 days. The environment looks to be quite favorable for strengthening, and NHC forecasts Erin to reach an intensity of 100 kts (115 mph) on Saturday, which would make Erin a Category 3 hurricane.
  
  I discussed the problems that weather models have with forecasting events far in advance in a previous post, and those problems still apply. Erin is just way too far away from land, so it’s too early to say for sure whether it is or isn’t a threat to the East Coast. However, looking at the model ensembles suggests that chances are increasing that Erin won’t be a threat to the region. Here’s the latest GFS and Euro ensemble model runs for Erin, out to 216 hours (9 days):

• Erin looks like it will be a typical Cape Verde-type hurricane, developing in the tropical Atlantic (the “Main Development Region” or MDR), moving quickly across the MDR, and eventually gaining latitude and turning northwestward around the Bermuda High in the central Atlantic. The models differ on where the western edge of the Bermuda High will be, but the vast majority of them suggest that Erin will head out to sea. A large majority of Cape Verde hurricanes tend to do that, and early indications are that this one will do the same.

• That being said…like I just said, Erin is quite far away and it will be a few days before the models start to agree on a specific track. While Erin is very likely not going to be a threat to the region, it’s also too early to say that Erin won’t be a threat. It’s something to keep an eye on for the next few days as it zips through the MDR. I’ll keep y’all posted.

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