Focus on Central Virginia - 7/18 through 7/21/25: Light at the end of the tunnel?

Weather Headlines for Central Virginia:

• Rain. Again. — After a brief reprieve, central and southeastern Virginia are once again under the gun for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. Most of the region is under a slight risk for excessive rainfall, while the Charlottesville, Waynesboro, and Staunton areas are under a moderate risk, which could result in…

• Major Flooding Risk — It’s bad enough that the Richmond area will experience heavy rain, including areas that have been dealing with flooding impacts for a while, but areas upstream on the James River could see extremely heavy rain, which could result in significant flash flooding downstream tonight and on Saturday. Needless to say, you should avoid being on the river. The moderate risk area could see as much as 6” of rain through tomorrow morning, while the Richmond area could see up to 3” of rain.

• Dangerous Heat on Tap — This weekend will see very hot temperatures again, with highs in the low to mid 90s across much of the region. This could send heat index values into the 101-104° range. A heat advisory is not in effect, but use caution if outdoors.

• Change on the Horizon — There are signs of a pattern change early next week that could finally, finally give us a break from the heat and humidity, at least for a little while. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with somewhat lower humidity will make for a great start to the week.

In Depth:

• You probably don’t want to hear this after the last couple of days were relatively dry, but we’re looking at another round of extremely heavy rainfall today and tomorrow. Thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon, and once again - thanks to the soupy air mass that just won’t go away - they will be slow-moving and produce extremely heavy rainfall that could cause flash flooding. There are a lot of areas in the Richmond region that really don’t need any more rain, especially parts of South Richmond, Chesterfield County, Colonial Heights, Petersburg, and Dinwiddie County. Any thunderstorms that form will likely not reach severe criteria, but they could produce gusty winds and…you guessed it, a lot of lightning. Needless to say, it may be a good idea to stay indoors tonight.

• Another issue is that there is even heavier rainfall forecast for the mountains of northwestern and north central Virginia today and tomorrow. Some localized areas in the Charlottesville/Waynesboro/Staunton area could see as much as 6” of rain in a very short amount of time. All that water has to go somewhere, and unfortunately the Richmond area is downstream from that area. This could result in severe river and stream flooding, particularly late tonight and tomorrow. Flood watches are already in effect for a pretty huge chunk of the state. So yeah, you’re going to want to stay off the river.

• When it’s not raining, it’s going to be quite hot and humid. Well, it’s been hot and humid. Today through Sunday will see temperatures in the low to mid 90s across most of the region, except at the beaches and along the Eastern Shore where onshore breezes will probably hold temperatures in the upper 80s. However, thanks to that really soupy air mass in place, heat index values will soar over 100° across the entire area. Although they won’t be quite hot enough to warrant a heat advisory, prolonged exertion in these conditions will be dangerous, and you should stay hydrated and monitor for signs of heat-related illness.

• Would you believe me if I told you the end was in sight? After Sunday, a cold front will finally — finally — break through the stubborn heat dome that has been in place for weeks and push out the hot, soupy air that’s been plaguing us for weeks. The result of this will be much cooler temperatures and somewhat less humidity, and no rain chances! Expect highs to be in the mid to upper 80s on Monday through Wednesday, with sunny skies and lower humidity (dew points in the mid 60s…that’s still considered humid, but not oppressively so). Temperatures will begin to warm up (and rain chances will increase) again on Thursday. If you’re planning a trip to the beach next week, this might be a good time to do it!