EPAC: Hurricane Erick

Hurricane Erick (05E) is undergoing rapid intensification off the southern coast of Mexico, and it is currently a Category 1 hurricane with 75 kt winds. The hurricane has quickly gotten better organized with a small eye feature clearing out on satellite imagery. Looking under the hood at the microwave imagery suggests that there is some dry air entrainment, as the eye is not completely closed. This is probably why the winds don’t seem to be as high as the satellite presentation suggests, as a recon mission currently in the storm suggests 70-75 kt surface winds.

NHC currently forecasts Erick to peak as a Category 3 hurricane (100+ kts) just before landfall. This is not great, as this is an area of Mexico not accustomed to intense hurricane landfalls, but it has had two in the last two years (Hurricane Otis in 2023 and Hurricane John in 2024). This situation definitely bears watching.